Dan Schnur is the Director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.  In addition to his position at USC, Schnur is an adjunct instructor at the University of California at Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. Schnur has also held the post of Visiting Fellow at the John F. Kennedy School of Government’s Institute of Politics at Harvard University and taught political campaign communications at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.  He also served as the National Director of Communications for the 2000 presidential campaign of U.S. Senator John McCain and spent five years as chief media spokesman for California Governor Pete Wilson.

Q: What is your reaction to the Senate version of the health care bill passing the House Sunday, and the fact an amended version of it will probably be signed into law?

A: There’s no question that it is a historic political achievement.  It’s historic politically and in terms of public policy, but we won’t know until November exactly how historic it will be politically.  And we won’t know for many years how historic it will be in terms of the public policy.

But it’s definitely a seminal event in history.

Q: Can you explain the political process the Democrats are using to pass Obama’s health care bill?

A: Because the Democrats no longer have 60 seats in the Senate, they can no longer change the original Senate bill.  But the House found many things in the original Senate version unacceptable - the tax on high end plans, the “Corn Husker Comprise,” the deal with Florida, etc. To get the changes they wanted, the House had to pass the original bill first, the original Senate bill, and then they passed the reconciliation (or the amendments) they wanted to the Senate bill late Sunday night.  Once the President signs the original Senate bill into law, then that, along with the reconciliation proposed by the House, will go back to the Senate for approval.  And the Senate only needs a simple majority, or 51 votes, to approve the reconciliation. 

The House is essentially taking a leap of faith that the Senate will agree to the changes the House made in reconciliation. And the Senate leader said they will, but that will take place over the next few days.

And here’s where it gets really complicated. Reconciliation can only be used for budget related matters. And a lot of Republican senators say the reconciliation the House is sending back to the Senate covers a lot of things that aren’t budget related.

Q: Will the Republican senators be able to hold up reconciliation because it’s not budget related?

A: The Senate will most likely pass reconciliation and it’s unlikely Senate Republicans will be able to stop it. 

Q: Will this health care bill have a real impact on the nation?

A: Yes. The one thing that both Democrats and Republicans can agree on is that this is going to change health care in a fundamental way.  The disagreement is whether it’s going to change it in a good fundamental way or a bad fundamental way. One point of disagreement is that Democrats argue it won’t change health care for people who already have health care. Right now we don’t know.  We won’t know until it plays out.

Q: What about the money? Is this going to increase or decrease the deficit?

A: Democrats say the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) isn’t taking into account likely savings.  Republicans say the CBO is not taking into account a lot of expenses. And just to go a step further, Republicans say additional revenue is being taken right away but expenditures don’t take place for another four years. So the way it’s set up, Republicans say, makes the money situation look better than it really is.  But, on the other hand, Dems say the CBO doesn’t take into account how healthier people won’t need as much health care, meaning they will cost less down the line than if preventative measures weren’t taken.

Both sides are right, we just don’t know which side is more right.

Q: What about these potential legal challenges to the health care bill?

A: Several attorney generals are preparing to sue.  They say it’s unconstitutional. And on the political front, Republican candidates this fall will be arguing that the bill should be repealed.

We don’t know how the attorney generals suing will turn out because nothing like this has been argued in the courts before. There is a legitimate legal argument that can be made that individuals can’t be forced to do things by federal government.  However, the other side can argue certain things, like health care, can be mandated for the public good.

Q: Will Republicans be able to repeal the health care bill?

If Republicans win so many seats in November that they take back Congress, and they decide they want to repeal, Obama won’t agree to a full repeal. He’ll probably negotiate some kind of compromise.

Bill Clinton, for example, agreed to reform welfare in 1994, after Republicans took back Congress but he didn’t agree to everything Republicans wanted.

Q: Why would Obama comprise? Even if Republicans do garner enough votes to repeal, they’ll need a two-thirds majority to overcome Obama’s likely veto of the repeal. A two-thirds majority is unlikely for Republicans to come by.

A: If public opinion so strong against the bill, then Obama would look for some kind of comprise. Obama wants to get re-elected after all.  But a full repeal would need a Republican congress and a Republican president.